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KMID : 1170320230290010001
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Korean Journal of Health Economics and Policy
2023 Volume.29 No. 1 p.1 ~ p.26
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Impact of Social Distancing Policy on COVID-19 Pandemic in South Korea
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Lee Eun-Kyeong
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Abstract
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This paper examines the impact of social distancing policy on COVID-19 pandemic in South Korea, using interrupted time series analysis. The study period covers from February 28, 2020 to March 31, 2021 (one month after COVID-19 vaccine dissemination). The dependent variables are daily numbers of newly confirmed case and daily numbers of new death from COVID-19. The explanatory variables include time elapsed since the start of the study, a dummy variable for pre- and post- policy intervention, covariates for controlling seasonality (daily average temperature, month, day of the week and holiday), three other policy variables that could possibly affect the number of newly confirmed case (number of new tests, mask policy, and GSI), and R0 to deal with reverse causality. We analyze the whole sample and two sub-samples by age and region, respectively. Our findings suggest that the social distancing policies in Korea were effective in controlling the increasing trend of daily number of newly confirmed cases (slope decreased by 5.79 for the 2nd wave and 36.35 for the 3rd wave), more so among middle-aged and elderly people and those living in metropolitan areas. Also, the social distancing policies attenuated the increasing rate of COVID-19 death by 0.15 for the 1st wave and 0.78 for the 3rd wave.
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KEYWORD
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COVID-19, Non-Pharmaceutical Intervention, Social Distancing Policy, Interrupted Time Series Analysis, South Korea
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